Integrated probability of coronary heart disease subject to the –308 tumor necrosis factor–α SNP: a Bayesian meta–analysis

Abstract We present a meta–analysis of independent studies on the potential implication in the occurrence of coronary heart disease (CHD) of the single–nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) at the –308 position of the tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNF–α) gene. We use Bayesian analysis to integrate independent data sets and to infer statistically robust measurements of correlation. Bayesian hypothesis testing indicates that there is no preference for the hypothesis that the –308 TNF–α SNP is related to the occurrence of CHD, in the Caucasian or in the Asian population, over the null hypothesis. As a measure of correlation, we use the probability of occurrence of CHD conditional on the presence of the SNP, derived as the posterior probability of the Bayesian meta–analysis. The conditional probability indicates that CHD is not more likely to occur when the SNP is present, which suggests that the –308 TNF–α SNP is not implicated in the occurrence of CHD.